DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201923
SWODY1
SPC AC 201921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/20/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BUT
FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SLOW AS STRONGER SHORT
WAVE FORCING REMAINS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE BORDER. WEAKER SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD FROM SRN CA TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...NW/NE...
COLD CORE SYSTEMS AND AMBIENT BACKGROUND ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARMING ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. OVERALL
LONGEVITY/COVERAGE APPEARS TO WARRANT NO MORE THAN LOW GENL TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...S FL...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT FRONTAL
INTRUSION WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

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