Friday, October 5, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060055
SWODY1
SPC AC 060053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MID-SOUTH...ARKLAMISS...AND ARKLATEX REGIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WHERE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. ANY
RESIDUAL...NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/SRN AR SHOULD
WEAKEN OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND ITS SWD-DISPLACEMENT
FROM ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS STABILIZATION
WILL ALSO MINIMIZE BUOYANCY FOR ELEVATED INFLOW LAYERS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...STABLE
PROFILES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...AND THE REVERSAL OF THE COASTAL SEA/LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION...WILL SUPPRESS ANY SVR THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...ALL SVR
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 10/06/2012

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