Monday, October 1, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011957
SWODY1
SPC AC 011955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON OCT 01 2012

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...SOUTHEAST...
MINIMAL CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. GREATEST RELATIVE RISK SHOULD EXIST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. REF WW 658 AND
ATTENDANT MCDS FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION.

...CAROLINAS...
EXPANDED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO RISK INTO
THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT IN SC TO
EXTREME SRN NC. REF MCD 2015 FOR NEAR-TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ERODING THE COLD
AIR...RESULTING IN THE WEDGE FRONT ADVANCING FARTHER N THAN PER
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME RELATIVE STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF STRONGER
FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN W/N OF THE FRONT AND WEAKEN LATE AS THE
SYNOPTIC CYCLONE FILLS. THUS...ANY APPRECIABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE IMMEDIATE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY
ACROSS SC.

..GRAMS.. 10/01/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON OCT 01 2012/

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AR THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE. AN OVERALL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

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