DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260046
SWODY1
SPC AC 260044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN GULF COAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE
SHARP COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY CURVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND GRADUALLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGLIGIBLE BY THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN...THOUGH...GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD AID THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF 40-50 KT LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...ONGOING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALSO APPEAR
BASED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF
SURFACE COOLING...INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST TO WEAK DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR.

...GREAT BASIN...
LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 02-04Z...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
SURFACE COOLING.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS APPEARS
INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS WITH INLAND ADVANCING CONVECTIVE
BANDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SANDY...AS IT MIGRATES NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 10/26/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.