DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051227
SWODY1
SPC AC 051225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST...LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL AND NRN U.S...ON SRN SIDE OF W-E ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH SETTLING
S ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR GRT LKS. A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PERSIST IN THE WEST...N OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT WILL MOVE
GENERALLY E FROM THE SRN RCKYS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS INTO THE LWR
MS/LWR OH VLYS.

AT THE SFC...SPRAWLING...SHALLOW ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SWD AND EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...OZARKS...AND THE OH...LWR TN...AND
LWR MS VLYS. THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES AND DAYTIME
HEATING...MAY FOSTER SCTD STORMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS
THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY.
AND...A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE ASSOCIATED 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH SAT...
PERIODIC EPISODES OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION/STORMS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE AND SHIFT SLOWLY ESE THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SUCH
ACTIVITY...BOLSTERED BY RESIDUAL EML PLUME AND PW AOA 1.5
INCHES...MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVE FROM FAR ERN
OK INTO NRN AR AND SE MO AS SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN WRN OK
ENHANCES ASCENT ACROSS REGION. WHILE AN OCCASIONAL STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE HAIL...CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILISTIC RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/ISOLD DMGG WIND.

FARTHER S AND E...A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG/NEAR SFC
FRONT THIS AFTN AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION OF MINIMAL
PRE-FRONTAL CINH. STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY ARE UNDERCUT BY SE-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/05/2012

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