Tuesday, October 9, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100057
SWODY1
SPC AC 100056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...COLLIER...AND MONROE COUNTIES -- INCLUDING
THE KEYS -- WHERE REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...AR/SRN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS...
WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK AND SPRINGFIELD RAOBS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST MODEST INHIBITION. AND...WITH THE REGION
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDER CHANCES LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

...CNTRL CA COAST...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE CNTRL CA COAST OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

..COHEN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2012

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