DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061231
SWODY1
SPC AC 061229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING S AND E ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD BENEATH BROAD
MID/UPR-LVL CYCLONIC FLOW. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH...A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE S AND E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF CSTS. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE CAROLINA AND NW FL CSTL AREAS BY 12Z
SUN AS A WEAK WAVE FORMS ON THE BOUNDARY OVER UPSTATE SC. FRONTAL
UPLIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF TSTMS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM ERN OK/NE TX ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND
FARTHER NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST ASCENT SHOULD
LIMIT STORM STRENGTH/LONGEVITY. ELSEWHERE...MORE NUMEROUS AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL FOSTER
DEVELOPMENT.

...FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN...
TSTMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTN OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS SFC
HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG AND S OF DISSIPATING W-E FRONT
OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE. COMBINATION OF FAIRLY HIGH PW /AOA
1.75 INCHES/...CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH THE W AND E CST SEA BREEZE
FRONTS...AND WEAK LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP TOWARD INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA BY MID AFTN. AT
THE SAME TIME...MODEST...WLY HIGH-LVL FLOW MAY FAVOR A TENDENCY
TOWARD EWD CELL MOVEMENT. HIGH PW AND MID LVL TEMPS AROUND MINUS 9 C
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A STORM OR TWO WITH STRONG SFC WINDS/ISOLD WET
MICROBURSTS. BUT WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND MID/UPR LVL CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LIMIT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF ANY SVR THREAT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/06/2012

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