DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240602
SWODY2
SPC AC 240600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PREVALENT
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS/CANADA ON THURSDAY.
TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
NEAR THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTHEAST-MOVING SURFACE
LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. THE
MAIN BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
/TOWARD CANADA/ DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...DESTABILIZATION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN MEAGER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE SPATIALLY NARROW /ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/ PRE-FRONTAL MOIST SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED TO
500-750 J/KG OR LESS.

BUT PROVIDED AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED/FAST-MOVING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DIURNALLY INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE OF SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST WIND FIELD WITH 60-100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...CONVECTION MAY ALSO TEND TO BE MORE POST-FRONTAL
INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS VICINITIES. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL...LOW PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 10/24/2012

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