DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER OH/MID
MS/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IS
FORECAST WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS IL AND MI DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD --
RESULTING IN OVERALL MAINTENANCE OF THE LARGER-SCALE/EWD-MOVING
TROUGH. FARTHER W...FAST/LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE WEAK RIDGING AFFECTS THE
SWRN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF SERN IA/NERN MO/NWRN
IL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SERN UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD ONTARIO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM...ENDING FROM W-E WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

...MID AND LOWER OH/MID MS/TN VALLEYS...
SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITHIN AND N OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
SYSTEM. AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
MORNING...THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDWEST REGION. AS A RESULT...OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED N OF THE OH RIVER DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM KY/TN SWWD...BUT DECREASING
SHEAR WITH SWWD EXTENT WILL OFFSET THE GREATER INSTABILITY --
PARTICULARLY FROM ROUGHLY SRN AR SWWD. THUS...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- LIKELY TO BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BANDS/LINES OF STRONGER STORMS -- IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/SWRN OH ACROSS KY
AND TN AND INTO NRN MS/ERN AR...AS CONVECTION REACHES A PEAK DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DURING THE EVENING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN KY/ERN TN
AND ADJACENT AREAS...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS
STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 10/13/2012

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