DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160855
SWOD48
SPC AC 160854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY/DAY
4. THE GFS ACCELERATES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEWD INTO SE CANADA BY
SATURDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE OH VALLEY. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS ESTABLISH A SWLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES WHICH WOULD HELP WITH
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE ECNTRL STATES COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LOW
ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2012

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