DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060832
SWOD48
SPC AC 060832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
06/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOSED LOW
...MIGRATING INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL FINALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...A PERSISTENT PRECEDING CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
SERIES OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD INTRUSIONS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. AND THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES MAY BE SUCH THAT THIS IS
INHIBITED. ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PROBABILITIES FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEAR LOW...WHICH LIKELY
CORRESPONDS TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/06/2012

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