ACUS48 KWNS 090854
SWOD48
SPC AC 090853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED
LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A
MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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