MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2024

ACUS11 KWNS 051617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051616
ARZ000-MOZ000-051815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051616Z - 051815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH A
TSTM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD ALONG A SLOWLY SWD-SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER NE OF FSM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR WITH AN EMBEDDED UPDRAFT CENTERED IN JOHNSON COUNTY HAVING
DEPICTED WEAK MID-LEVEL ROTATION. BASED ON 16Z METAR/MESONET
OBSERVATIONS THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST-FRONTAL WITH A 1016 MB
SYNOPTIC CYCLONE OVER YELL COUNTY...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING E/NEWD TO NEAR DYR. WITH PREVIOUS-GENERATION RUC-BASED OA
MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD LARGELY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS ACTIVITY LIKELY
EVOLVES E/NEWD AND REMAINS POST-FRONTAL.

..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 10/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 36589113 36529016 35959006 35629034 35039207 34339407
34639443 35309422 35849353 36309259 36399222 36589113

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