ACUS11 KWNS 131810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131810
TXZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131810Z - 131945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT BY 20Z. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD
BE LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT FROM HOWARD TO ERN BREWSTER COUNTIES. PRONOUNCED SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY AND A STRATOCU DECK
FARTHER E IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER N...THEY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32000140 32080031 31859957 31599954 30879980 29940037
29380100 29730237 30220237 31050196 32000140
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