ACUS11 KWNS 192048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192048
NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-192215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA INTO SERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192048Z - 192215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE FROM NRN VA
ACROSS ERN PA INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NY. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER CLOUD COVER HAS BROKEN SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE
DELMARVA NWD INTO ERN PA AND THIS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DEEPEN AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 70S. RESULTANT STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE AIDED SHALLOW CONVECTION AND EVEN A FEW
DEEPER UPDRAFTS THAT ARE NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY NE OF
HARRISBURG PA. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE CURRENT THINKING IS
THE MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT
MORE THAN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..DARROW/WEISS.. 10/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38687789 42737618 42177445 38387632 38687789
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