MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2081

ACUS11 KWNS 220608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220608
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-220845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...NRN MO...EXTREME ERN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220608Z - 220845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN LNK-LWD...MOVING
NEWD MAINLY OVER SWRN IA. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER
PORTIONS NRN MO AND SRN/CENTRAL IA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST
CELLS WITHIN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED
AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z.

DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY IS LOCATED LEFTWARD FROM 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS AND
MOSTLY E OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WITHIN BROAD
LLJ PLUME. TSTMS ALSO ARE INVOF PERSISTENT JUXTAPOSITION OF 850-MB
THERMAL AND MOIST AXES EVIDENT IN 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IN
PLANAR OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SINCE. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WITH 850-MB DEW POINTS IN 14-15 DEG C
RANGE...SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN 1000-2000 J/KG
PRECONVECTIVE/ELEVATED MUCAPE SUGGESTED BY MODIFIED OAX/TOP RAOBS
AND RR/ARW-KF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...MODEST MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY BELOW 35 KT...LIMITING
ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF HAIL THREAT. ENTIRE TSTM REGIME WILL
SHIFT EWD TO ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH SOME
LATERAL EXPANSION LIKELY OVER IA AND NRN MO.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 10/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 39709333 40079494 40689622 41219618 42649471 43019308
42759184 41929127 40069183 39669351 39709333

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