MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

ACUS11 KWNS 242339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242338
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UPPER MI...NRN AND WRN WI...SERN MN AND ERN
IA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242338Z - 250145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM NWRN WI NEWD OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG AND N OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HERE...LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION IS BEING MAXIMIZED WHICH IS BEING REFLECTED BY 1-1.5
MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS. SOME OF THE SRN CELLS MAY TREK ENEWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT WITH ACCESS TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
63-64 F DEWPOINTS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SWWD INTO IA AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES AND COOLING ALOFT OCCURS. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 10/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42499122 41119219 40929315 41139388 41619396 42889290
44019223 45079197 46329144 46689096 46949034 47558823
47478763 46698786 44898944 42499122

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