ACUS11 KWNS 310142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310141
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-310245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VT AND NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 310141Z - 310245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WATCH DOES
NOT SEEM NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...BUT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY BEING
SUPPORTED BY A SUSTAINED FOCUSED AREA OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50+ KT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW...WHICH COULD ADVECT IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHERN VERMONT...INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC...BY 03Z. SURFACE
DATA SUGGEST LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...AND NEAR
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FAIRLY MODEST...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ENOUGH DOWNDRAFTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...WITH
SPORADIC DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/31/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 45267296 45437214 45207126 43897090 43617102 43537175
43497215 44037280 44487329 45267296
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