DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 091413
SWODY1
SPC AC 091411

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 AM CST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IN THE FAR WEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E INTO
THE GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BROADENS AND SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIES FROM THE MS VLY TO THE E CST. DEEP SFC CYCLONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL RE-FORM SE ACROSS WY TODAY...AND CONTINUE
SE INTO CNTRL HI PLNS EARLY SAT...AS STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW
FROM THE LOW MOVES E ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN RCKYS. WAVY SFC FRONT
NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLNS ENE INTO MID MS VLY SHOULD BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME...AND ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
SAT.

DRY LOW-LVL AIR IN PLACE E OF RCKYS...AND MID-LVL CAP...WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT INVOF
COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT
BASIN AND RCKYS TODAY/TNGT. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER
THE MID MS VLY/MIDWEST EARLY SAT.

...THE WEST TODAY/TNGT...
DEEP TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION/STORMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH LIKELY WILL BE
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LVL
FRONTAL UPLIFT...DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION...AND
STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT A
LONG-LIVED BAND OF CONVECTION/LOW-TOPPED FRONTAL STORMS OVER PARTS
OF UT...CO...AND WY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD /50 KTS AT 700
MB/...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE /PW AROUND .5 INCH OR LESS/ SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY POST-FRONTAL...THEREBY LIMITING
DURATION/AREA SUBJECT TO ANY APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT. OTHERWISE...A
SEPARATE AREA OF WDLY SCTD CONVECTION/STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF CA AND THE ORE CST UNTIL UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES E
BEYOND REGION LATER TODAY.

...MID/UPR MS VLY/MIDWEST EARLY SAT...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ABOVE 800 MB TNGT AND EARLY SAT OVER
PARTS OF THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST AS WAA STRENGTHENS
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP/PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN THIS LAYER...IT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
YIELD SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE TSTMS...MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
PROSPECTS FOR SVR HAIL APPEAR QUITE LOW.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/09/2012

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