DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111300
SWODY1
SPC AC 111257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO
PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP RCKYS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE
MID/UPR MS VLY EARLY MON. IN ITS WAKE...ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NM
SHOULD TURN NEWD THIS AFTN...REACHING ERN KS BY THIS EVE AND WI
EARLY MON.

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE
INTO WRN ONT TODAY AS TRAILING POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES ESE ACROSS
THE MID MS VLY...OZARKS...AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS. THE SRN
PART OF THE FRONT WILL OVERTAKE REMAINING PORTION OF PACIFIC FRONT
OVER ERN OK AND CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. THE PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.

....E TX/ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS TODAY/TNGT...
MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1000 J/KG FROM ERN
OK/WRN AR S AND SW INTO E TX/WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. COUPLED WITH
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF NM UPR IMPULSE...AND ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT MORE
MOISTURE-RICH RETURN FLOW /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F/...THE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS JUST AHEAD OF IT.

50-60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER REGION...SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT
LOW-LVL...PRE-FRONTAL FLOW BENEATH APPRECIABLE UPR DIVERGENCE
SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF CAP IS BREACHED AHEAD OF THE LINE. THESE
COULD POSE AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK GIVEN CURVED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY FROM E TX/NW LA INTO CNTRL
AR. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE WDLY SCTD AT
BEST...AND FCST WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW TO MID-LVL BACK-VEER PATTERNS
THAT ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THUS...THE MAIN SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS LIKELY TO
EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONTAL SQUALL-LINE. SOME HAIL ALSO MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN TX.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT AND
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE NM IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD AWAY
FROM AREA OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN...AND SQUALL LINE MOVES E
BEYOND RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF RETURN FLOW.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/11/2012

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