DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121239
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
DEEP MS VLY TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AND CONTINUE ENE INTO THE LWR GRT
LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW SPREADS EWD FROM THE
GRT BASIN ACROSS THE RCKYS AND GRT PLNS. SHALLOW COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR OH
VLY...THE NERN STATES...AND THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY/TNGT. WHILE
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT/UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER/MORE STABLE LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS COVERING MOST OF THE ERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION.

LOW-LVL UPLIFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD
TSTMS ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE ERN GULF CST
REGION THROUGH LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED BUOYANCY/DIMINISHING
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR WEATHER RISK. STRONGER SHEAR/DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FARTHER N OVER THE
OH VLY/NRN APPALACHIANS. BUT INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
AND/OR SHALLOW FOR STORMS.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/12/2012

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