Tuesday, November 13, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131248
SWODY1
SPC AC 131246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS ERN
TROUGH FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES UPON CONTINUING ENE INTO QUE. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS...NOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...WILL REACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE AND WRN AR EARLY WED.
WHILE THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEN...MORE
APPRECIABLE DEEPENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED.

COOL...DRY AIR SPREADING SWD IN WAKE OF THE ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT AT LWR LVLS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PENINSULAR FL...WHERE RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. UPLIFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND SFC HEATING TO ITS S...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION/WDLY SCTD TSTMS.
OTHERWISE...A FEW AREAS OF MID AND HIGH-LVL CONVECTION MAY PRECEDE
UPR IMPULSE AS IT APPROACHES S CNTRL AND DEEP S TX LATER TODAY/EARLY
TNGT. BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE THAN VERY SPORADIC/OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THIS ACTIVITY APPEAR LOW ATTM.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/13/2012

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