Wednesday, November 28, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280545
SWODY1
SPC AC 280543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LARGE EAST-PACIFIC CYCLONIC
GYRE WILL MOVE ASHORE AND TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON AROUND THE CNTRL CA
COAST...AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING FRONT INTERACTS WITH MEAGER BUOYANCY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT ONLY MODESTLY DEEP CAPE LAYERS FEATURING VERY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- MUCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 150 J/KG -- AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
EXCEED ISOLATED. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
GREATLY HINDER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AMIDST ONLY MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS DESPITE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
STATES...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/28/2012

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