DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061220
SWODY1
SPC AC 061217

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2012

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SWATH OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW...ON THE ERN FLANK OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE ENTERING THE BASE OF A
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER AL. THIS POTENT MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS LATER
TODAY AS STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY ALIGN
FAVORABLY WITH COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. EARLY
STAGE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS WAS UNDERWAY OVER THE NERN GULF
THIS MORNING WHERE A PERSISTENT COMPLEX OF TSTMS WAS COINCIDENT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FL WEST COAST.

...WRN/SCNTRL FL...
ONGOING MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR/WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL WEST COAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL FL LATER THIS
MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE AND TRAILING FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM
THE AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFT ENEWD AWAY FROM
SRN FL AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE. THIS MAY ALREADY BE
OCCURRING BASED ON IR CLOUD TOP WARMING AND DECREASE IN LIGHTNING
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS THE NERN GULF. TBW SOUNDING
CURRENTLY INDICATES A MODEST NEAR SFC-BASED INVERSION AND
DESTABILIZATION OVER LAND AREAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED. A
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT GREATER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS...FROM
NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THE PROSPECT OF AT LEAST WEAK SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION DEVELOPING
IN THIS CORRIDOR...AND STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...SMALL LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE TSTM HAIL AND
WIND AREAS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THIS UPDATE.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/06/2012

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