ACUS01 KWNS 051546
SWODY1
SPC AC 051544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
..HART/MOSIER.. 11/05/2012
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