DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141944
SWODY1
SPC AC 141942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE U.S. DEPICTING A LACK OF THUNDER WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE THUNDER AREA BEING MADE THIS FORECAST. ISOLATED
STRIKES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FL AND ADJACENT WATERS...WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER N INTO GA AND VICINITY LATER
IN THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 11/14/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST WED NOV 14 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO DEEP SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE TOWARD CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
EAST COAST. A SHARP FRONT DELINEATES THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE MARITIME AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THEN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

...FL/GA/SC...
DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS OVER FL
WHERE RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS NEAR STALLED FRONT.
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT SRN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND NRN FL. PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL/GA
AND SC AS THE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND LEADS TO
MOISTENING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THAT. STORM UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN REMOVED/DECOUPLED FROM STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 500 J/KG PER LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. SHEAR OF 25-30KT WITHIN THE
STORM UPDRAFT LAYER OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE AND...GIVEN LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE.

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