DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051242
SWODY1
SPC AC 051240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION REVEAL A FAST
AND WELL AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENT. A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER WRN BC HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
CANADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CRESTS
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN CANADA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. WHILE A NUMBER OF
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS A COMPACT AND STRENGTHENING
IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

...SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...
AHEAD OF THE COMPACT BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING
SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
NRN FL WEST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN.
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN LA. WHILE THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR AND NRN LA WITH 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M OVER THESE AREAS BY EVENING.

LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND ISOLD HAIL
POTENTIAL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM AR/NRN LA INTO MS
TODAY. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AS THE UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO
SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY FAVORING
SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

SUPPORTED BY THE STRENGTH AND CONTINUING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/05/2012

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