DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121621
SWODY1
SPC AC 121619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY WILL
EJECT ENEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK BUOYANCY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE WRN CAROLINAS/VA WHERE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR...BUT BUOYANCY COULD EXTEND INTO
THE MIXED PHASE RANGE /-15 TO -20 C/ AND SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

FARTHER N ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AS A RESULT OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS. A NARROW FORCED BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
/ALREADY PRESENT IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/ COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A FEW STRONGER SURFACE WIND GUSTS...GIVEN THE STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW
OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS
MINIMAL AND DAMAGING/SEVERE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THUS WILL NOT
ADD A TSTM AREA AND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 11/12/2012

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