DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2012

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN WA/ORE EWD INTO CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
DCVA/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- CURRENTLY CROSSING CNTRL WA/ORE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY --
WILL MARGINALLY BOOST BUOYANCY AND SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGHLIGHTING RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING SOUTH TX...12Z RAOBS
AT CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE TX INDICATE LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF 14.8 AND 15.4 G/KG...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL YIELD
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT DRY AIR ABOVE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/DEPTH OWING TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS DCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 900 J/KG...THOUGH ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY AMIDST THE WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

...THE FL PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A W/E-ORIENTED PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY BUOYANCY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE/HEAT
FLUXES ATOP THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...RECENT LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST
A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY OVER THE
FL PENINSULA. THIS WEAKER BUOYANCY WILL BE THE MANIFESTATION OF
/1/ THE DEBRIS CLOUD CANOPY BEING STEERED OVER INLAND AREAS BY
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF CONVECTION THAT WILL HINDER
DIABATIC HEATING...AND /2/ THE ISOTHERMAL TO INVERSION THERMAL
STRATIFICATION CENTERED AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL AS EVIDENT IN
FLORIDA 12Z RAOBS. GIVEN THAT THE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z
WHEN NOCTURNAL INHIBITION WILL INCREASE...AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK ASCENT
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND SWD-SAGGING
FRONT...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 11/01/2012

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