DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070544
SWODY1
SPC AC 070542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN U.S. WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA. A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NWD ADVANCING VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO SCNTRL CANADA IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM VORT MAX THAT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN CORE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT REACH COASTAL WA AND ORE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT SUGGESTING MOST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
PERIOD ALONG THE WA/ORE COASTS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE NWD ADVANCING
VORT MAX WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THIS VORT MAX. HOWEVER...CAPE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED /AOB 200 J/KG/ AND CONFINED TO LAYERS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE AOA -10C SUGGESTING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INLAND IS
UNLIKELY.

..DIAL/COHEN.. 11/07/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.