DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181945
SWODY1
SPC AC 181943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SUN NOV 18 2012

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK -- WITH SPORADIC/ISOLATED
LIGHTING POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF UT AND VICINITY...AS
WELL AS OVER PARTS OF FAR W TX AND THE TRANSPECOS AND BIG BEND
REGIONS. A FEW STRIKES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF THE CAROLINA
COAST...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 11/18/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
PRIMARY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS. FARTHER W...A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROGRESS GENERALLY ENEWD IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF INTEREST -- 1/ ONE OVER AZ/NM
AND 2/ A SECOND OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THE NRN GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD
MT/WY BY TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SLC/GJT/LKN ALL SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THUS...WILL
ADD A TSTM AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS FAR W TX SINCE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WAA REGIME WILL REACH OK/KS/MO OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ADDITION
OF A NEW OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

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