Wednesday, November 28, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281615
SWODY1
SPC AC 281613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST WED NOV 28 2012

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY TODAY...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT. A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING 100
M/12 HR WILL ATTEND THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHEN COUPLED WITH MOISTENING...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...THE SETUP WILL YIELD POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...SENSIBLE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 11/28/2012

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