DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081243
SWODY1
SPC AC 081241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU NOV 08 2012

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
AND EAST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
GREAT BASIN. IN BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE TROUGHS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST AND NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. TSTM PROSPECTS WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST BUT A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING.

...WEST COAST INLAND ACROSS ORE/ID...
LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO NRN
CA TODAY SHOULD COMBINE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. MUCAPE IN THIS
REGIME IS FORECAST TO BE AOB 100 J/KG AND EXPECT LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC LIGHTNING.

...SRN CA COAST...
A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EJECTING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE MUCH
STRONGER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STORMS OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INTO SRN CA THROUGH THE MORNING SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH CAPE ROOTED ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER TO CONTRIBUTE TO
A COUPLE OF TSTMS AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE COAST.

...SRN AZ...
SAME DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN CA WILL ALSO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER CO VALLEY AND AZ LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOISTENING AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AMIDST SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/08/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.