DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191941
SWODY1
SPC AC 191939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON NOV 19 2012

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE TX BIG BEND AREA...ARROWHEAD OF MN AND PACIFIC NW
COAST...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.

..DIAL.. 11/19/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON NOV 19 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY A LITTLE AS A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST...RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF A TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE SLOW-MOVING LOW NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EWD MORE QUICKLY AS A RESULT OF THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE CONUS BASED ON THE LACK OF INSTABILITY PER
12Z SOUNDINGS.

THE ONLY AREAS WITH A VERY MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
INVOF THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE THE 12Z INL SOUNDING REVEALED MUCAPE
NEAR 100 J/KG ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AROUND THE TX BIG
BEND...AND THE PAC NW COAST. IN ALL OF THESE AREAS...MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND/OR LIMITED ASCENT SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREAS ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

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