ACUS02 KWNS 111701
SWODY2
SPC AC 111659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY OVER THE
CONUS...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY TSTM POTENTIAL /LIMITED AT THAT/ WILL BE TIED TO
AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY TUESDAY.
...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES...THE ENTRANCE
REGION/ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A 100+ KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. CONSEQUENTIAL
MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 60 F...WILL BE
RELEGATED TO THE GULF COAST REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED IN
THE NEAR-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. IN SPITE OF A STRONG NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...A VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. IN FACT...THE SHALLOW/POST-FRONTAL NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY SPARSE LIGHTNING
COVERAGE/LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL OVERALL.
..GUYER.. 11/11/2012
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