ACUS02 KWNS 121657
SWODY2
SPC AC 121656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY...AND ACCELERATE
EASTWARD THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH LITTLE DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.
...SOUTH TEXAS...
COOL SURFACE RIDGING LIKELY WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU MAY PROVIDE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF WARM CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT...AND
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINING
UNCLEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DO NOT APPEAR MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL
THUNDER LINE...AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/12/2012
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