ACUS02 KWNS 250658
SWODY2
SPC AC 250656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2012
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY GRADUAL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THIS FRONT BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
...EAST TX/FAR SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO MONDAY AS THE REGION
INCREASINGLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INTERCEPT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AS
MUCH AS 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX AND
ADJACENT WESTERN LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOME TIMING/SPATIAL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM
AMONGST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT SCENARIO APPEARS TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS EAST TX...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHERN AR...AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN LA. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
/30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/BOWS. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OTHERWISE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...PRIOR TO A PROBABLE DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BY
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 11/25/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment