DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140831
SWODY3
SPC AC 140830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED NOV 14 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL
AMPLIFY AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF OVER THE ERN STATES...WHILE A FAST
ZONAL REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SFC A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A
WEAK FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER SCNTRL FL.

...CNTRL AND S FL...

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL EXIST IN THE S FL WARM SECTOR. WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...BUT
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE. VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MAY AFFECT THE FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN PERIOD. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN
WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND PROFILES ALOFT APPEAR SUBSIDENT
DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER ASCENT WITH ANY VORT MAX
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH MAY MODIFY THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2012

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