ACUS48 KWNS 180758
SWOD48
SPC AC 180757
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2012
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH D5/THURSDAY AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE DRIFTS EWD FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO EAST COAST. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND PERHAPS THE MO RIVER VALLEY
AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
D6/7...FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WHILE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD AND DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DO BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY D5/6...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN U.S....THE OVERALL LACK OF GREATER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE TSTM FORMATION.
..CARBIN.. 11/18/2012
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