DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030802
SWOD48
SPC AC 030801

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHIFTING FROM AN
ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE TO A WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

AN ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN D4-D5...AND WILL EXIT THE COAST IN THE
D6-D7 TIME FRAME. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

BY D7 AND D8...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WRN STATES...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM HUMID
AIR TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH EWD
INTO THE PLAINS ON D8 WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OK INTO SRN MN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
FARTHER W. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION...INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED.

SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE DENOTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ONCE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE TROUGH INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 11/03/2012

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