DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060836
SWOD48
SPC AC 060836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON FRI/D4...WITH AN INTENSIFYING JET CORE
NOSING INTO CO BY 12Z SAT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM WRN MN SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND INTO
WRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...AND STORMS WILL EASILY ERUPT
ALONG IT.

HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS FROM KS INTO
NEB...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR N AS
SWRN MN. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S F...INSTABILITY LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. CAPPING
SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE FRONT DUE TO COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES. ALL THIS SUGGESTS A LINEAR STORM MODE IS LIKELY.
WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING
CELLS MERGING...HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS.

SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS INTO IA...MO...AND OK. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EXTEND SWWD INTO OK SAT NIGHT...THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUN/D6...FROM ERN OK
INTO AR...NERN TX AND NRN LA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREAT WITH A SQUALL LINE...BUT VERY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. IN
ADDITION...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 11/06/2012

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