ACUS11 KWNS 052325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052325
LAZ000-TXZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673...
VALID 052325Z - 060100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH SVR WINDS/HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS
WW 673...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS LYING WITHIN 60-75
MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW LA COAST.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONT
TRAILING WSW OF A MESOLOW LOCATED 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO 50 WNW
BEAUMONT TX WITH A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER WEST INTO
S-CNTRL TX. THE STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES IS
APPARENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF THE WW AREA...WHERE
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. STORMS COULD ALSO
EVOLVE FROM THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DECK OVER E-CNTRL TX THAT
LEADS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN 60-75 MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW
LA COAST...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN THIS AREA...THE
PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WINDS/HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED.
..COHEN.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29169276 28729768 30309768 30739274 29169276
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