MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2117

ACUS11 KWNS 111613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111612
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111612Z - 111815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS
WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO
50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL
/ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF
SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 33329573 33969513 34419467 34459413 34319372 34229361
33689384 32109479 31369539 31229585 31279625 31569638
33329573

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