DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...

...CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SEWD ACROSS SE GA/N FL AND OFF
THE SC/NC COASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE
ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE /PW VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS S FL.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY S OF A LINE FROM FORT MEYERS TO VERO BEACH...WHILE
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE N OF THE
THICKER CLOUDS AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
67-70 F WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

THE ONGOING S FL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING. BY MIDDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING
GUSTS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL BY RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE. LIKEWISE...THE HAIL
RISK WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 12/11/2012

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