DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 122000
SWODY1
SPC AC 121958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST WED DEC 12 2012

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK/FORECAST REASONING. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING SINCE AROUND 1830Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR/SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH LOCALLY
BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT/INLAND MOVEMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE YET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR...MODEST CONVERGENCE/MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED/MARGINAL IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 12/12/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST WED DEC 12 2012/

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS LA/MS...WITH DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT ACROSS FL.
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WHICH WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER... INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS THE RATHER WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND STORM INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

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