DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121247
SWODY1
SPC AC 121246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED DEC 12 2012

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
ARKLATEX...IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WITH ENEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA
WILL DRIFT SWD...AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/CAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA...AND
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
A WEAKENING AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED NEAR AN OCALA
TO DAYTONA BEACH LINE AS OF 12Z...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING S TODAY. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO PRIMARILY BE
FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SWLY FETCH OF MOIST GULF AIR /PW
VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCH/ WILL BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA...AND MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. MODIFIED 12Z TBW/MFL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 700-1000 J/KG BY
LATE MORNING.

MIDLEVEL SWLYS OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN N OF THE COLD FRONT...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/12/2012

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