Tuesday, December 18, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181545
SWODY1
SPC AC 181543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48
TODAY...ON SRN FRINGE OF BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. THE PATTERN
WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TNGT AND EARLY WED AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER
THE GULF OF AK. JET STREAK/COLD POCKET ALOFT NOW CROSSING THE PAC NW
CST SHOULD CONTINUE SSE INTO CA/NV LATER TODAY/TNGT...FOSTERING
AMPLIFICATION OF ATTENDANT UPR TROUGH AS THAT FEATURE NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY DEEP...CYCLONIC...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY OVER CSTL WA...ORE...AND NRN CA...BEFORE UPR IMPULSE MOVES
BEYOND REGION THIS EVE. COUPLED WITH VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /MINUS
34 TO MINUS 38 C AT 500 MB/...SCTD OPEN-CELL SHOWERS/WDLY SCTD TSTMS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CST THROUGH THE AFTN. COOL THERMAL
PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL MINIMIZE
ANY RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WIND.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 12/18/2012

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