DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST WED DEC 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR DATA DEPICT A MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NE STATES BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE...A DISTINCT SRN-STREAM
CYCLONE...WHICH RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
TRACK ESEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.
WITHIN THE SRN/ERN QUADRANTS OF THIS CYCLONE...THE PRESENCE OF
MARGINAL BUOYANCY AMIDST RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA...SERN MS...AND
SWRN AL. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

FARTHER E TOWARD THE SERN STATES...RELATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL
ASCENT AND INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
SEWD-MOVING FRONT...SHOULD PREVENT ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO FROM OCCURRING.

ACROSS THE WRN STATES...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO BROADLY CYCLONIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS SUBTLE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE FLOW. AN INLAND-DIRECTED
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FROM THE CNTRL CA
COAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN FEATURING WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT...ALONG WITH
VERY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY THROUGH NARROW CAPE LAYERS PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/05/2012

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