DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100601
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS THE CNTRL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INCREASING SPREAD
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN A BRANCH OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...BEFORE CURVING ACROSS THE U.S. IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC
FASHION. IN GENERAL...THOUGH...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG MORE SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. AS IT DOES..SHORT WAVE RIDGING
SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WHILE REMNANT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE VIGOROUS IMPULSE MAY PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LATTER FEATURE...WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WHILE WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MOIST LAYER ELEVATED
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION /NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT/ MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE EASTERN GULF
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS DOES APPEAR TO INCLUDE
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR...AND NOW MORE BULLISH...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING BY TUESDAY. THIS MAY INCLUDE AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE OF CARIBBEAN ORIGINS...RESULTING IN SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR
70F...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS 1.75+ INCHES. WITH AT LEAST
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER 1000
J/KG SEEMS PROBABLE...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. LOWER/MID- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM 30 TO 40+ KT AT
MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND THERE ARE
PERHAPS INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY A
STRENGTHENING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR.. 12/10/2012

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