DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160701
SWODY2
SPC AC 160700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTION S OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE ERN U.S. MONDAY.
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA. THE SRN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM SFC LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE ERN
STATES...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN U.S. COAST SWWD INTO THE NRN
GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

SWLY LLJ WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 40+ KT FROM GA INTO CAROLINAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NEWD
THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL SC AND SERN
NC...RESULTING IN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED /GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG/ ESPECIALLY WITH NWD
EXTENT INTO WARM SECTOR DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...THOUGH NAM AND
ECMWF SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY
ADVANCES EWD AND STRONGER FORCING MOVES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. STORMS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH
HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH EWD ADVANCING CLUSTERS/LINE OF STORMS.

...TN AND OH VALLEY REGION...

MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE
50S OVER THE TN VALLEY TO 40S FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC
WARMING MAY YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 300
J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION. IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POSSIBLY AIDED BY
AT LEAST MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2012

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